Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
